Counting us in - on doing numbers more honestly
- David Runcorn
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
Updated: 2 hours ago
David Runcorn is a co-convenor of Inclusive Evangelicals and the author of Love means Love - same-sex relationships and the bible (SPCK 2020).
When you want your beliefs to be compelling and persuasive to others, being able to claim the numbers are on your side is undeniably helpful.
This has not always been possible for evangelicals. For the first half of the last century, they were a beleaguered minority in the Church of England, their beliefs wholly unsupported by numbers. But they were undeterred – after all, numbers are not the measure of truth. At my conservative Bible college many years ago, the old mantra was still being repeated: ‘one with God is a majority’.
However, in today’s Church of England a well-organised and financially well-resourced alliance of conservative evangelical leaders (though not all their followers, please note) have been strongly influencing the current debates on same-sex relationships, and they have conscripted numbers to support their argument. One specific claim made is embracing an inclusive view of same sex relationships and marriage leads automatically to church decline, while all churches holding an ‘orthodox’ view are growing. The numbers prove it, is how the argument goes.
Using numbers as proof
This assertion is made so frequently on online discussions it seems clear that
conservative Christians believe it to be an incontestable fact. A conservative blogger recently wrote, ‘every single church which has changed its doctrine of marriage has shrunk. The only churches (denominations) in the West that are growing have stayed with the teaching of Jesus that marriage is between one man and one woman.’ He said he was waiting for ‘a liberal’ to help him make sense of this. (Yes, ‘a liberal’ – where are they when you need one?)
One person replied, ‘As any scientist will tell you, correlation does not prove causation. If you want to make this claim (as you do repeatedly), you need to do the work. There are probably innumerable variables for the decline of any particular denomination. It’s too convenient and, frankly, lazy to pin it on the greater acceptance of same sex relationships. Whilst this is undoubtedly a factor for some, the lack of greater acceptance will have turned away many others.’
A Canadian priest and friend joined the discussion. He is an evangelical and fully supportive of same sex marriage, which is permitted in a majority of dioceses in the Anglican Church of Canada. He therefore tends to receive push back on similar lines. Sure enough, the numbers arrived. ‘The Church of Canada has 60,000 members and is losing them at a rate of 9% a year,’ wrote one. The reason for this decline? – they had ‘abandoned the Maker’s design’ by accepting same sex-marriage. Another mocked the Canadian church saying it had ‘lost the plot a long time ago’.
My friend’s perceptive reply could equally be applied to the UK church context. ‘Rather than 'losing the plot' I think it would be truer to say that the plot has changed and we haven’t been good at responding to that change. Our church (like most Christendom denominations) is well-designed for a Christendom situation, in which most residents in a given geographical area are Christian or nominally Christian. So what they need is not evangelisation but pastoral care. However, Christendom is now gone in most of our communities, and the church now finds itself in a mission situation in which the primary need is for the Christian community to share the gospel and make new disciples. We are not used to this (we haven’t even been good at doing it for our own children, which is the primary reason—along with the deaths of our older members—why our church is shrinking so fast). Some congregations and clergy in our church have made the switch to the new plot, and are doing reasonably well. But the majority have not, and those churches are in trouble.’
He couldn’t resist adding, ‘I note that the Church of England is also experiencing a catastrophic attendance nose-dive - and same-sex marriage is still illegal there!’ (1)
When one conservative blogger asked, ‘Find me one church that has grown since it became inclusive’. I did. A very well-known church, actually. I went to the trouble of obtaining their attendance figures, before and after they adopted an inclusive stance. The growth was evident and substantial - not just in numbers, but in the character, variety, and sheer diversity of the community now gathering there - something much closer to the way the New Testament measures growth.
There are other stories out there. In a few months’ time, ‘Inclusive Evangelicals’ will be publishing a book which, among many other things, offers testimony of such growth and flourishing, often in the face of much opposition.
So the claim that adopting an inclusive position leads inevitably to decline is false, and those making it should know better. Christians have a commitment to speaking truth – not least about each other.
Are numbers automatically a sign of truth?
The appeal to majorities is a familiar one. ‘The church has taught this for two thousand years.’ Something widely believed, and for a very long time, is something to respect and is not for changing lightly. But the appeal to longevity, like size, is not, in itself, a guarantee of truth. Nor does it mean that those holding different convictions are wrong. We may just have believed something for a very long time. What we assume is true is more a habit. We may have never been exposed to other ways of thinking or understanding. If we are unwilling or unable to imagine the possibility of new ways of knowing in our world, we will be unable to respond faithfully to the questions that are presenting themselves before us.
When numbers are used this way, church growth is assumed to mean growing numerically bigger. Eugene Peterson believed the church in America had been devastated by such consumerist assumptions. ‘Our methods of going about our business are, by and large, counter to the gospel. Everyone thinks if the church is doing it right, they’re going to have a lot of people. But the church, when it has been alive, has never been popular. Never.’ (2)
In the New Testament interested in numbers?
The epistles are certainly concerned about true faith, but they never discuss the numerical size of their churches. They are clearly concerned to be faithful to the call of Jesus to take the gospel into all the world and make disciples. But no comparisons are made or significance claimed from numbers. We simply do not know how many attended the church of, say, Antioch or Bithynia. Lesslie Newbigin, who worked tirelessly for the missionary effectiveness of the church, observed how little interest the New Testament actually shows in numerical growth. For example, although John’s gospel and epistles reveal great concern for the world, ‘there is no evidence anywhere that the salvation of the world depends on the growth of the church.’ (3)
The gospels meanwhile reveal Jesus expressing a disproportionate delight and compassion for the smallest and least significant. He believes in a God who notices when the tiniest sparrow falls to earth, whose kingdom is expressed in the tiniest seed that falls into the ground, and who will abandon an entire flock for the joy of finding the one lost sheep. Jesus tells us we meet him when we minister to the ‘least of these,’ not the greatest. To describe the witness of his disciples in the world his metaphors are not grand and expansive - he speaks of salt, a little yeast, or a single light. He is the God of small things.
Using numbers truthfully
Last year a letter became public that was sent to the bishops of the Church of England by the Alliance*. It claimed to have over 2300 clergy signed up, and to ‘represent 42% of the Church of England’s average Sunday attendance’. Nic Tall offered an analysis of the use of these figures. He noted that clergy signatories had been told - “we will not assume you speak on behalf of your whole church.” Nor was it clear how many separate churches were being talked about. Furthermore, larger churches often have large ministry teams. Holy Trinity Brompton alone has 37. So what is the basis for claiming 42% of churches were represented? ‘It is clearly not a reliable percentage, given that the number of people allegedly attending the churches connected to the 2360 clergy are unlikely to have been calculated on the same basis as the national figure for average Sunday attendance’. Tall also made the more obvious point that 2360 out of 20000 active clergy in the Church of England means that 17000 have not expressed support for the Alliance. But the ‘Inclusive Evangelicals’ network all too frequently hears the frustration of members in churches where open discussion has not been allowed, and the variety of views present in a congregation is not acknowledged or represented by its leaders. (4)
Including all the numbers
‘Living in Love and Faith’ (LLF) was the largest consultation exercise the Church of England has ever held with all its members. At its conclusion there were 6400 responses to the feedback questionnaire. This was a statistically significant – ‘for comparison, professional polling companies normally use a base of 1000 people to accurately represent the views of thousands or millions, or up to 2500 when seeking further accuracy’. (5)
The responses were professionally summarised and published in September 2022. Four things were very clear.
i. The majority want the acceptance of same-sex marriage or blessing of same-sex partnerships.
ii. There is a strong desire across all traditions and perspectives for the Church to be more welcoming and inclusive.
iii. There is a willingness to acknowledge a diversity of views and a desire to keep the church together.
iv. The church is seeking clear leadership from its bishops for to take us forward in the light of these convictions.
In response to those outcomes the bishops brought to Synod a Pastoral Letter, their apology to LGBT+ people and proposals for ‘Prayers of Love and Faith’ (PLF). In February 2023, Synod welcomed these proposals by a clear majority (57% in favour, 41% against). It is worth reading the bishops’ letter again and noting the repeated expressions of joy and welcome in it. ‘Bishops joyfully affirm, and want to acknowledge in church, stable, committed relationships between two people – including same-sex relationships. (6)
If numbers are a guide, what has happened to this survey and the response that flowed from it? Why has the clear mind of the church been sidelined and other voices prioritised?
Count us in.
2&3. quote in David Runcorn, The Road to Growth Less Travelled - Spiritual Paths in a Missionary Church, Grove Spirituality Books, 2008, p18.
5. for an analysis of the findings see https://cofe-equal-marriage.org.uk/llf-what-the-c-of-e-really-thinks/
6. https://www.churchofengland.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/gs-2289-living-in-love-and-faith.pdf. The pastoral letter from the bishops starts on the third page in.
* A partnership of leaders of various conservative and charismatic evangelical organisations united by their opposition to supporting same-sex relationships.